Lawrence Carter

Professor Emeritus

Address: 804 PLC University of Oregon Eugene, OR 97403	Phone:	(541) 346-5169
	Fax:	(541) 346-5026
	Email:	lcarter@uoregon.edu

Professor Carter is a demographer who has made major methodological breakthroughs in the study of mortality rates, in particular, the "Lee-Carter Method." He has consulted for the state of Oregon retirement system.

Research Interests

demographic analysis of age structured populations
demographic modeling and forecasting of fertility, mortality and migrations
time series analysis of demographic estimations and projections for local areas
dynamical systems analysis of demographic processes

Teaching Areas

demography
urban sociology
ecology
statistical research methods

Courses Taught

SOC 312	Quantitative Methods in Sociology
SOC 415	Social Demography
SOC 613	Advanced Sociological Methods

Selected Articles

2001 "Examining Structural Shifts in Mortality Using the Lee Carter Method" with Alexia Prskawetz. Demographische Vorausschatzugen-Abhendlugen des Arbeitkreises Bevolkerrungswissenschaftlicher Methoden der Statistischen Woche 2000, Weisbaden, Germany: Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungenswissenschaften.

2000 "Imparting Structural Instability to Mortality Forecasts," Special Issue: New Directions in Demographic Theory, Mathematical Population Studies 8(1).

1998 "Combining Probabilistic and Subjective Assessments of Error to Provide Realistic Appraisals of Demographic Forecast Uncertainty: Alho's Approach." International Journal of Forecasting, 17(4), pp. 524-526.

1998 "Confidence Intervals for Small Area Population Forecast Error: A Repeated Sampling Approach," with Jeff Tayman and Edward Schafer. Population Research and Policy Review. 17(1)

1996 "Forecasting U.S. Mortality: A Comparison of Box-Jerkins and Structural Time Series Models." The Sociological Quarterly, 37(1), pp. 127-144.

1995 "Disaggregation in Population Forecasting: Do We Need It? and How To Do It Simply," with Ronald D. Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar. Mathematical Population Studies, 5(3), pp. 217-234.

1993 "Adjusting the Oregon Population Survey with the Public Use Sample," with Edward Schafer. 1993 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, pp. 1-7.

1992 "Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Sex Differentials in Mortality," with Ronald D. Lee. International Journal of Forecasting, 8(4), November, pp. 393-411.

1992 "Rejoinder," to comments on article, "Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality," with Ronald D. Lee. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), September, pp. 674-675.

1992 "Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality," with Ronald D. Lee Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), September, pp. 659-671.

Education

Ph.D. -- Oregon